Defense Scheme No.1
A President-elect's threats and Prime Minister's resignation.
In 1921 a fantastic scheme was developed by the Canadian Director of Military Operations and Intelligence, Lieutenant Colonel James Brown. It was a war plan created for horrifying, yet not unthinkable problem; the American invasion of Canada.
The plan was bold to the point of madness. In the event of war, the bulk of the Canadian Army would invade the United States in a sudden, violent, attack across multiple axis, seizing border towns, strategic bridges, and industrial targets across the northern USA. Albany, Bangor, Fargo, Great Falls, Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle and Spokane would be seized by the Canadian Army, at which point they would dig in and fight a slow withdrawal back to the Canadian border, buying time for the rest of the British Empire forces to arrive.
Defense Scheme No.1 was likely doomed to failure; it is unlikely the British Empire in the 1920s and 30s could have mustered the numbers of soldiers required to win a protracted war, and certainly not in time to change the outcome in Canada. The Royal Navy too, would not be able to effect the course of the campaign, and in all probability, had Canada launched Defense Scheme No.1 the British would have left Canada to its fate. It did however, make sense at the time. In the case of otherwise inevitable defeat, it can often be better to attack aiming for the knockout blow, but it would not have been 1812; the sequel.
It seems bizarre today, to think that this plan was even conceived, but in the 1920s, it wasn’t the only one; the Americans had War Plan Red. This plan was one of a series of colour-coded plans the US Military developed, with Red-Orange being the plan to counter the British-Japanese alliance of the period. Red and Red-Orange would have featured invasions on multiple axis, seizing population centers on the border and especially Halifax, which would be bombed, likely with chemical weapons, to deny British reinforcements.
These plans were not the efforts of bored staff officers, but real, concrete plans that were accepted doctrine in the event of diplomatic breakdown. Serious enough that Lt Col Brown went in civilian attire to the areas of the USA targeted by Defense Scheme No 1, something that, had been caught, could have easily earned him the firing squad for espionage.
Defense Scheme No 1 was put aside in the 1930s as rapprochement with the USA was seen as the only effective defense, and in that sense, they were probably correct then, as they would be now. War Plan Red was last updated in 1935. Today it would be foolish for the CAF to have any type of equivalent plan on the books, and given the nature of Canada-US relations, the Americans likely have an updated version we’re not allowed to see.
Had War Plan Red or Defense Scheme No 1 been launched, they would have represented the fourth violent confrontation between the USA and British North America in its forms. During the War of Independence, the Americans invaded Lower Canada. The War of 1812 had many causes, but conquering Canada was an explicit war goal of the United States, and one they dramatically failed to achieve. After the US Civil War, the Fenians, Irish-American Civil War veterans, launched a series of raids in the hope of overthrowing British control over Canada.
Today, Canada’s Royal Military College is overlooked by Fort Henry, a fort built for the express purpose of defending the Rideau Canal entrance from American Invasion. The Canal travels through Ottawa, which is our second capital because Kingston was too vulnerable to American attack. The Canal itself, now the world’s longest skating rink (climate change permitting), was built to move troops in the event of American invasion.
The overwhelming majority of the history of the Canadian-American relationship, however, has been one of friendship and mutual interest. There are few if any Canadians without at least one American friend or acquaintance. People, goods, and services, be they auto parts, hockey players, or electricity, move seamlessly between the two countries. Both nations, and especially their capitalists, benefit greatly from this symbiotic relationship.
It seems today, like a strange relic of a long-dead past that Canadians used to talk in serious tones about Americans invading, but people are alive today that were alive when the two nations had competing war plans about each other and sharing a continent with an aggressive, expansionist neighbor has been a balance every Canadian leader has had to manage. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau referred to it as “sleeping next to an elephant,” because no matter the intent of the elephant, you can’t ignore when it rolls over.
Now its 2025 and the elephant shit the bed.
Threats aimed at Canada by neo-fascist American politicians are nothing new, but they are increasing lately, and we can’t ignore it anymore. President-Elect Donald Trump has repeatedly called Canada the 51st State, as have many of his incoming regime. He has threatened economic consequences to Canada for non-compliance. He will be, thanks to the Supreme Court ruling last year, completely without legal constraint while in office, he has a fanatical following especially in law enforcement, and his brain is melting.
Do I believe the Americans will follow through and attempt to directly annex Canada? No. Do I believe that this still represents an existential risk to Canadians? Yes.
This topic places me in a strange spot politically. Straddling the Anarchist/Communist line as I do, I don’t believe in nations, I feel nationalism is gross, I think flags are bits of (interesting) coloured cloth and believe that national borders are something invented to divide and rule people. Why care about the machinations of one colonizing power over another then?
Because I live here. Because however flawed Canada is, the one thing I can be assured would make it worse is even more American encroachment. We’re already latching on to the worst impulses of the Americans, as is our custom, yet one is definably worse than the other.
We don’t know how much worse the United States is going to get. The rights, livelihoods, and fundamental rights of LGBTQ people, immigrants of all types, people of colour, and religious minorities are all gravely at risk in the USA already and they will get worse as the Trump regime takes office. The claims Trump and his regime-to-be have made since the election have been sickening, and the only counterpoints to them have come in the form of questioning his legal authority and his truthfulness.
Neither of those things matter. He is the President Elect of the USA, and as such we can’t tell ourselves that he doesn’t mean it. The legalistic guardrails have been taken down so there is no point discussing if he can or can not do something. It is fair to say that regardless as to exactly what happens next, improvement from the point of view of fascism-dislikers isn’t on the cards.
Canada is the neighbor of a paranoid, heavily-armed, fascist state with a leader in possession of dictatorial powers. Even if they do absolutely nothing negative to Canada, we will see the side effects of the repressive policies that have already begun.
We can expect refugees. So far, people fleeing able to flee oppression in the USA have generally been those with connections or means to do so. That will change if the policies Trump has threatened are implemented on anywhere close to the scale he threatens. Will Canada recognize such people as refugees, and incur the likely anger of the American government for doing so?
Extradition treaties will become extremely important in such circumstances. As we have seen with the assassination of Brian Thompson, there is broad support for radical resistance1 in the USA, and furthermore, many of the measures against immigrants and migrants Trump has proposed will inevitably be violent. Would Canadians be willing to see Canadian authorities extradite or bar the entry of Americans fleeing crimes done in the cause of healthcare?
We can expect bleed-over. American politics have a massive impact on Canadian politics, expect Trumpism to continue to hold real support in Canada. People will continue to be inspired by the MAGA movement, and the American right-wing will continue to fund the Canadian right-wing and they them. It is, and will continue to be a symbiotic, cross-border relationship.
It is in this context, that I arrive in my long-winded way, to Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement. I have not and will not see eye-to-eye with Trudeau in many areas, however, his resignation is a good decision worthy of being commended, and not just because he removed himself from office.
Whatever happens after January 22nd, the leader of Canada should have a mandate do be the leader of Canada. Having categorically lost his, Trudeau chose to step down in the hopes someone else will be able to lead constructively (albeit later). In the meantime, book publishers will be tripping over themselves trying for his autobiography rights, but functionally, little has changed since the New Year began.
The next four years are going to test our democratic and societal institutions. We’re going to have an election while Trump’s regime holds office. Even on a good day, American influence is everywhere and inseparable from Canadian social and political life. It is impossible, in some cases, to clearly separate Canadian and American vital interests. Ask any Canadian about “the last election” without further context and see if they talk about Trudeau.
That influence, paradoxically, is actually Canada’s greatest ally too.
The Canadian and United States economies are so heavily intertwined that there is already very little an aggressive Trump would actually need to do to make Canada even more of a vassal. Any policy more aggressively anti-Canadian and pro-American than Trump has already done in his previous term, will be inherently self-defeating.
Unfortunately, self-defeating foreign policy is in vogue. Preventing a war on ones border by broadening the war on ones border. Doing genocide to the population you already keep as a captive worker, then wondering where your economy went. Keeping a war going even though you know you couldn’t win because a British clown told you to. Stupid, bloodthirsty decisions that appeal to nationalists, capitalists, and basement losers are very popular these days.
I don’t know what the next few years will hold, how they’ll affect Canada, or what the crowd milling around Parliament will be able to do about it. What I do know is that the American Elephant has shit the bed, and if we want to get the least of it possible on us, we’ll need to act like it.
If we are the independent nation we claim to be, I hope that whomever sits next in the Prime Minister’s office is able to prove it.
Ian, January 7th, 2025
Further reading
Donald Trump: Won't rule out military force to take Greenland | CTV News
At U.S.-Mexico border, migrants fret as Trump’s return nears
Trump blames immigrants for deadly New Orleans attack by a U.S. citizen - Los Angeles Times
The alleged shooter’s politics are something of a mixed bag, so I refer in this situation, to the support the case has acquired as opposed to the motives of the individual concerned.
I had never heard of Buster Brown's Defence Scheme No. 1 until now. (Defence, by the way, not Defense). And what an appalling idea, along the lines of "The Mouse that Roared." The Commonwealth would not have intervened then, any more than they would now. But Turdeau has certainly left the country in a perilous position by refusing to resign months ago, when there would have been time for an organized transition. So, by the time our general election is over and done with we'll have the pathetic vision of Pierre the Viper sniffing around Trump's ass. Lord, what a mess, but as you say, for all this nation's flaws, it's a world better than south of the border.