Sleeping Giant
The resiliency and power of the American Empire
"I shall run wild considerably for the first six months or a year, but I have utterly no confidence for the second and third years."
Marshal Admiral of the Imperial Japanese Navy, Isoroku Yamamoto speaking to Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe during planning for the attack on Pearl Harbour.
“Hey you! You stupid Kraut bastards! Say hello to Ford! And General fuckin Motors! You stupid fascist pigs! Look at you! You have horses! What were you thinking!?”
Private David Webster haranguing German POWs in HBO’s ‘Band of Brothers’ miniseries.
American Empire is strange because it is simultaneously the most powerful empire in human history yet there are those inside it that would deny its very existence. Exist it does, even colouring in maps is no longer in vouge. I’m sure if the British Empire was renamed The Free Country Coalition and they renamed the Governor General of the British Raj the Special Liaison to the Princely States, an average newspaper reader in Nottingham might believe the British didn’t have an Empire.
History is often with such a lens that, when similarities appear, the urge is to jump to the historical precedence and see events as inevitable. The human brain loves pattern recognition. Accepted concepts like the notion that Empires last 250 years on average are occasionally enlightening, but they rely on us ignoring the Chinese Empire (221 BC – 1912 AD) and Roman Empire (27 BC to 1453 AD1) to name some examples. Recently bias is a hellava thing.
The American Empire, that broad array of nominally independent nations financially and diplomatically reliant on the United States of America, has been suffering some heavy setbacks lately. By many accounts, the end is nigh for the American Empire. I disagree.
Since the fall of the USSR in 1991, the United States has been on top of the world. The Empire has enjoyed a hegemonic power not seen since the times of the Pax Romana. The past thirty years the US has spent in small conflicts at the far reaches of the Empire. While they were doing so, other nations were growing, husbanding their resources, and increasing their economic self-reliance. The advent of the BRICS group has eroded the ubiquitous power of the US Dollar that was established in Breton Woods in 1944. The cutting edge of American technology has been equaled if not surpassed. China has gone from an economically dependent manufacturing economy to being the most powerful nation in the world in the space of a few decades. Russia, seen right up until 2022 as a weak, corrupt, and revanchist power, has placed itself back in a position of great influence in Europe and Asia. Ties between Russia, DPRK, and China are as good as they’ve ever been.
America’s favorite Middle Eastern proxy, Israel has been suffering setback after setback. The IDF has proven incapable of defeating Palestinian Resistance after more than a year of siege, genocide and occupation. Likewise, their efforts fighting Hezbollah saw them accept a ceasefire2 having advanced on average no more than 5km into Lebanon and having not defeated Hezbollah in the field. Their military has been seeing wide scale morale problems, desertions, and Israel today has little to show for it but international pariah status.
Ukraine has fared even worse, locked into a war that was never really winnable. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have already deserted this year. The counter-offensive in Kursk has failed in its objective to slow or stop the Russian advance in Donetsk. American officials have been demanding that Ukraine lower the conscription age to 18, a demand that is causing revulsion in Ukraine. President Zelensky has finally admitted publicly that Ukraine is incapable of regaining its lost territory and is open to peace talks.
The one bright spot for Imperial policy right now, is Syria. A sudden and massive operation dubbed “Deterrence of Aggression,”3 was launched by HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, formerly known as Al Nusra Front, a branch of Al Qaeda) from the Turkish monitored Idlib area. The rebels were most likely trained and equipped in Türkiye. In the classic style of the American meddling in Syria, their frenemies, the HTS and Turks are attacking their other US allies, the Kurdish SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces). As of this writing, Aleppo, Palmyra and Hama have decisively fallen to the HTS forces, and Homs is in the process of being invested.
It’s not hard to see this latest proxy offensive against the Assadist forces of Syria for what it is: a new (restarted) front in the proxy war with Russia and Iran.4 Anthony Blinken may be running out of Ukrainians to feed into the death factory, but he’s still got plenty of Syrians.
Externally, these triple crises for the Empire give the appearance that the American Empire is in a bad way. Internally, the USA looks even worse. Rampant poverty, police violence, fascist mobs, and the promise of self-defeating Trumpian policies make it seem like the long collapse of empire is at hand. I would argue that it is very far from collapse. What we are seeing is not collapse at all, but rather the American Empire changing in the face of a changing, multi-polar world order.
The reality is that the American Empire has not begun to wield the majority of its power yet. Yes, it is suffering defeats on the world stage, but these defeats do not, and will not, affect vital American interests. The Empire has up to now, been choosing when and how hard to fight. Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq, Ukraine, these are conflicts that they lost, or are losing, but they did not extend close to their actual power to fight them. These conflicts also represent the exception, not the rule.
Each defeat the American Empire has suffered has been bookended with overwhelming victories. They lost Cuba but ask Che Guevera how the revolutions in Boliva and Congo went. The Empire lost in Vietnam, but their hold on the vital interests in Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and Korea never wavered (after 1951). The Empire is the status quo in the world today, so their victories are legion, but not newsworthy. The Americas, excepting Venezuela and Cuba, (and to a lesser extent, Brazil) remain firmly held in the American grasp, and NATO isn’t going anywhere either. The UN cannot function without the American Empire, as has been seen with the Israeli Genocide in Palestine. Germany, France, and the other EU powers may be exasperated with the Americans over Ukraine, but I don’t see them jumping ship anytime soon.
The Empire has lost conflicts, yes, but has it ever lost a war in which its vital interests were at stake? No. Thus far, the American Empire has lost conflicts in its periphery. The actual crisis of the American Empire hasn’t happened yet.
The United States has historically been incredibly effective in mobilizing their economy and people for crisis, even when the crises themselves are no tangible threat to the average American, such as the world wars. The Civil War (1861-65) saw the mobilization and arming of over 3 million men, and the death of 2.5% of the population. Put another way, were if fought today, 7 million Americans would have died in a four-year conflict.5
January 8, 1917, the Supreme Army Command (Oberste Heeresleitung or OHL) of the German Empire made the monumental decision to begin unrestricted submarine warfare, something they were knew would almost certainly bring about the American entry to the Great War. It was a factor Kaiser Wilhelm II and Field Marshall Paul von Hindenburg both considered irrelevant.6
The effect was not instant, but by April 6, 1917, Congress voted to join the war on the Central Powers as a nominally independent combatant on the side of the Entente Powers. From that date until November 11, 1918, the USA mobilized 1.97 million soldiers to fight on the Western Front and augmented the Royal Navy to the point where the crushing economic blockade was no longer assailable.
Far from being irrelevant, the USA decisively changed the course of the Great War at a time when the Central Powers were in fact, winning. While the contribution of the US Army seems small as a proportion of losses suffered in the First World War, the US arrived in the conflict at a time when both sides had suffered so many losses that most could not fill their ranks. Russia had fallen to revolution, freeing up much of the Central Power’s armies there. While few Americans were involved in the Kaiserschlacht, the same cannot be said of the crushing counter attacks that followed.
Admiral Yamamoto, quoted above, was much more aware of the risks he was taking. The quote “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve,” is apocryphal, but it is reported that the Admiral was deeply depressed after the attack on Pearl Harbor. He was a worldly and educated man who had travelled to the United States and was aware of the raw socio-economic power that nation possessed.
Yamamoto was correct, though he did not live to see it. By the end of the Second World War 4/5s of all warships on the high seas flew the flag of the US Navy. The United States had mobilized 16 million people from 1941 to 1945. By 1945, the war was costing the United States in excess $200,000,000 per day. The US Navy had so many carrier borne aircraft, damaged planes and airframes with eight months of service were routinely tipped overboard.7
The Korean War was fought, in large part, by soldiers who just missed World War II, carrying equipment manufactured for World War II. They produced so much for one war that they had enough surplus for another, plus a few new jet fighters to test.
This phenomenon represents far more than just manufacturing power alone, but an aggregate of socio-economic potential. Mobilizing in times of crisis is far more than just manufacturing ships, guns and planes, but placing them in the hands of willing people. The United States not only mobilized a colossal military force, but also solidified their hold over global financial institutions at the Breton Woods Conference (1944), and using the Marshall Plan, rebuilt much of battle-scarred Western Europe following the defeat of Nazi Germany.
The massive, overwhelming power this represents when wielded in times of crisis is something American media, even the above quoted Band of Brothers fails recognize. American conflict-media tends to be a close-run thing. Plucky troops close to losing it all but saving the day in moments of profound crisis. Reality is another matter.
Since the end of the US Civil War, the American Military has never been placed in a position of existential crisis. Even in both World Wars, there were a few setbacks like Kasserine (1943), and Hürtgen Forest (1944), and some temporary losses of territory, like the Philippines (1942) and Wake Island (1941), but there was never a time in which the US was at risk of losing those conflicts nor was there expectation of anything less that total victory.
Hitler, until his dying day, was sure that the decadence of the Americans would bring their own downfall, if not by the Nazis, then by the Communists. What he didn’t recognize was that the decadence he was observing was brought on by and was a product of America’s naked power. I’m sure Vercingetorix of Gaul or Hannibal of Carthage thought the Romans were decedent before the Romans crushed the life out of them too.
Then there’s Donald Trump. To some he is seen as the harbinger of Imperial death and to others, Imperial salvation. He is neither. He represents an internal change; a re-evaluation of how the Empire sees itself, the values it holds, and how it conducts itself in world affairs. Trump is, and shall be, as faithful a servant of the Empire as whatever is left of Joe Biden.
The Empire was never on the ballot and never will be. It is a big unfeeling machine that runs nearly independent of individuals, regimes, and the minor differences between the tolerable political parties. If one looks at how the Empire behaves through the lens of American Liberal pseudo-democracy, then its actions are nonsensical, self-destructive, and dangerous. If you observe the behavior through the lens of realpolitik however, they actually follow a logical, predatory, and deeply cynical process.
The Empire is not losing in Ukraine, the Ukrainians are. Ukraine is a peripheral Imperial asset, a non-member who gets the cheap export model weapons. The process for Ukraine is bloody, will end in defeat, and will involve trillions of American Dollars to rebuild. Ukraine will be left destitute, their economy shattered, and with significant parts of their industry in Russian hands. They’ll need help to rebuild; and the bankers, contractors and Imperial middle-men will swarm in like mosquitos scenting blood. This is not to say the Empire is indifferent to the outcome; the war has been humiliating for the American Empire to be sure, but the Empire isn’t in danger, and no outcome in that war would bring vital American interests into question.
The same can be said for Syria. The American Syria policy is unhinged unless one considers the cynical objective of their conduct in Syria. The HTS was formed by Al Nusra Front, the Syrian wing of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda was being funded by the US Government before One World Trade Center had finished construction. While still funding Al Nusra, the Americans also began active military support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish led coalition. As previously mentioned, SDF and HTS forces have been fighting, and were fighting each other through much of the Civil War. This is the policy of a consummate sociopath, but in the eyes of Empire, it makes perfect sense. The purpose is not to support anyone in this blighted region, but rather to deny this region to their true rival in the region: Iran. If not a single member of the organizations that the USA sponsors there survives the conflict, no aspect of the American Imperial policy will change. The only part of that region they care about happens to be the part with American soldiers and oil wells on it, and even then, ask an American soldier how much the Empire cares about their wellbeing.
American policy towards Israel follows this same logic, the difference being that Israel is not a peripheral state in the Empire, but a core member whose interests are not lightly sacrificed. The Americans are too invested in Israel politically, militarily and financially to ever consider actually abandoning their ally, so when placed in a binary position, where they must support their mad dog or let them fall into chaos, the Empire was always going to choose the Empire. Israel paid the membership fee; they bought F-35s.
The America Empire is undergoing change. It has lost its precious image of a country seeking huddled masses yearning to be free, but that was always imperial window dressing. For half of the life of the Roman Empire, the Greco-Roman pantheon was considered inseparable from Empire, but now the Catholic Church is the enduring legacy of Rome. Times change and empires change with them.
What does the Empire still have on its side? The majority of the world, the damaged but intact institutions it established like the World Bank and UN, an enormous economy, a frightening surveillance apparatus, and the most powerful military and police force ever seen in human history.
Could this enfeebled empire be headed for collapse? Sure, anything is possible. Is it weaker than it was? Yes, absolutely. Is it dying?
No. We haven’t even begun to see what America can and will do before the death of Empire.
Ian, December 7, 2024
Some historians argue the medieval Eastern Roman Empire (AKA Byzantine Empire) is distinct enough to not consider it part of the Roman Empire. Even if you adhere to this interpretation, then one can argue the Western Empire lasted 500 years.
As of this writing, the IDF has already violated the ceasefire on several occasions, and time will tell if it holds.
The most deeply American operational name they could give it.
Both nations back the Assad regime and were instrumental in that regime retaining power during the Syrian Civil War.
Source: PBS.org
‘The First World War, Germany and Austria-Hungary 1914-1918’ by Holger H. Herwig.
‘Retribution, The battle for Japan 1944-45’ by Max Hastings.
Wow, this one's sweeping. When I watched the American people choose Trump - the worst American president ever - to occupy another term, I was almost certain I was watching a crumbling rottenness from within that would cause an implosion. How could a people so bereft of education consider such a choice? I saw this election as indictment upon their whole society. I still believe that the centre will collapse through gluttony and ignorance, but perhaps the "empire" is so widespread that it will continue its existence, albeit in another guise, As you say, the definition of empire itself is slippery. Maybe it's an old-fashioned term that no longer applies in an interconnected modern world?
When Sassanian Persia became a power facing the Romans, they split in half, adopted Christianity and ended up shrinking by half but they didn't go away. They just reformed in a multi polar world (damn I should have included that).