The Precipice
Operation Al Aqsa Flood, launched on October 7, 2023, will go down as one of the most unambiguously successful single acts of resistance in the history of modern armed conflict. What followed has been one of the most brutal conflicts in recent history and the next phase, which has begun in Lebanon, could well engulf the Middle East.
As I write this, the world stands on a precipice. This is a moment in history, a point in time, will be remembered for generations.
Israel is a rogue state that has been engaged in genocide in Gaza and the West Bank. It is operating Concentration Camps for Palestinians. It is an apartheid state. It openly murdered doctors, journalists and aid workers. The genocide in Gaza has been broadcast to the entire world in real time by Israel’s own soldiers and statesmen. Not understanding that it is a genocide is by now willful ignorance.
There are no excuses left.
Israel has traded all of their goodwill internationally from everyone but their benefactor and accomplice; the United States. They have bombed or conducted terrorism in: Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Iran just in the last year.
In the past month, the IDF has started attacking Lebanon. While a bombing campaign against Hezbollah had been ongoing since Operation Al Aqsa Flood, the intensity has greatly increased. The Pager Explosions of Sept 17-18, 2024, perpetrated by Israel, was a blatant and murderous terror attack that singled the start of a campaign against Lebanon. Then came the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah on Sept 27.
These two acts, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, were clear and obvious provocations by Israel. Each was completely unnecessary; decapitation strikes, as they are called, do not work. Leaders are remarkably easy to replace, and their deaths rally their outraged followers to the cause. There is a reasonable argument to say that in fact, decapitation strikes strengthen and radicalize most militant causes, not weaken them.
What these murders did accomplish was the total destruction of any peace plan. In the case It is clear by this behavior that Isarel, and specifically Benjamin Netanyahu, is trying to widen this conflict, especially to include Iran, an ally of Hezbollah.
Iran has, up to now, been very restrained, despite what the media may tell you. They have twice launched ballistic missiles at Israel. In the first strike in April, it was forewarned to Israel and there was only token damage and no casualties. It seems very likely that was the case that the Oct 1 strike was also forewarned. In spite of many hits on Israeli military targets, the casualties were very low, and almost entirely due to falling debris from interceptions.
As of this writing, the Israeli Government has said they would respond, and Netanyahu said Iran “will pay.”
The Iranian Government has said that there are no ‘Red Lines’ left and that further strikes on Iran will cause an all-out response. Both sides are threatening each others critical infrastructure such as oil facilities as well as military targets. Both nations are capable of inflicting enormous damage on the other.
But neither can win outright, and that is the dangerous paradigm at play in this current round of the conflict.
In Yemen, Ansar Allah has recently used a hypersonic missile to hit Israel. This technology completely changes the field of naval warfare in the Red Sea. Strikes launched by the US, UK and Israel on Yemen have proven wildly ineffective at stopping or even slowing the attacks. The Red Sea, and thus the Suez Canal, is already all but closed to Israeli aligned shipping, and this likely won’t change soon.
The last Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006 did not go well for the IDF. Hezbollah explicitly exists to defend against an Israeli attack, and it is an eventuality they have been preparing for since 2006. The terrain is rough and heavily favours a defender, especially one who has honeycombed the area with tunnels, stockpiles and defensive positions.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist group by the USA and Canada, but few other nations. They govern much of Lebanon, and they possess a highly effective military force that uses proto-guerilla tactics to counter the IDF’s air supremacy.
The IDF in Gaza proved themselves to be murderous, undisciplined and badly coordinated. They have been mauled by incredibly brave but badly equipped teenage orphans in tracksuits. I think if the IDF throws itself into an invasion of Lebanon, it will likely lose.
So far, the IDF has only conducted raids into Southern Lebanon and appears to have been given a bloody nose. The fog of war is thick at the moment, but it is clear already they’ve already taken serious casualties.
Then there’s Iran to deal with.
The Israeli Airforce has approximately 280 multirole aircraft with 86 on order. This number does not represent the effective or exact inventory but gives us a rough figure. If one factors the many issues around maintaining and operating a modern supersonic fighter, the number decreases significantly. The exact figure is not something the IAF would ever disclose right now, but I will use American statistics to estimate a high average of 210 airframes.1
The IDF is heavily reliant on airpower to conduct all levels of its operations. Can it spread out the close air support duties in Lebanon, strikes in Gaza, strikes on the Lebanese-Syrian supply routes, and defend from and hit potential in Iran? My money is emphatically on no.
Can the IDF ground forces, without that air support, succeed in Lebanon? Likewise, I bet no.
Can the IAF survive a concerted ballistic missile strike from Iran? I can’t say, but I doubt it will help their mission readiness.
Something’s got to give and Israel is a nuclear power.
Unless the fascist Netanyahu regime decides to deescalate, something they have up to now refused to do, then American’s favorite vassal state in the Middle East will be in a three-front war with an enemy it cannot defeat, with a freefalling economy and the status of a pariah abroad.
If this war were to break out and the IDF starts hitting Iranian oil and natural gas infrastructure, it is very likely oil prices will skyrocket. If American assets get involved, the threat of an oil conflagration across the Middle East is absolutely on the table. I am not an economist, but I’m not sure the shaky American economy would survive weather such a crisis gracefully.
Does the American Government therefore throw in against Iran? Do they let the Israelis engage in what one commentator called “Israel’s charge of the light brigade,”? Can the American Empire afford in economic and diplomatic terms, not to intervene?
Masterful gambit Mr. Biden.
Ian, 4 Oct, 2024
Calculation is based on a 2023 readiness report from the USAF of all airframe types. High performance aircraft generally have much lower readiness than the 70% given. This number after a year of combat operations would be diminished further.
Oh, yes. All true and prescient. The West (aka the US and friends) has supported Israel's aggression far too long. It's a no-win situation that has been allowed to escalate. Diplomacy is now a joke.